Summer School 2017

Lake Como School of Advanced Studies

September 11 – 15 , 2017

 

Scenario Analysis and Sustainable Policy Modelling
with Computer Simulation

Scientific Proposal

The challenges in governing (both public and private institutions) has evolved in the last 30 years. The world has become increasingly interconnected, complex, and fast-evolving, so that consequences of individual behaviours and policy choices are more unpredictable than before and timely decision-making is necessary to ensure positive outcomes. As policy science advances theories and models to deal with the complexity of today’s decision-making, the goal of the school is to provide scholars in social sciences with instruments to understand the root causes of problems and to develop models allow intuitive and user-friendly assessment of the sustainability and the long-term robustness of policies. More precisely the school will focus on modelling techniques that allow the building of simulation models to be used to support policy-making in complex decision-making settings. In particular, the aim of the school is to make participants able to design and to build computer simulation models to test effectiveness of policies and to perform long-term scenario analysis.

School Coordinators:

Dr. Ing. Stefano Armenia
System Dynamics Italian Chapter

Prof. Edoardo Mollona,
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
Università degli Studi di Bologna

Programme:

Hours Topic Activity Lead
Monday 11
09:00 – 09:30 Opening Presentations Stefano Armenia / Edoardo Mollona
09:30 – 10:30

 

Conceptualization & Basic Policy Modeling

Lecture I Pål I Davidsen

 

10:30 – 11:00

Coffe break

 

11:00 – 13:00

 

Conceptualization & Basic Policy Modeling

 

Lecture II

 

Pål I Davidsen

 

13:00 – 14:30

Lunch

14:30 – 16:00

 

Modelling Short and Long-term policies of capacity adjustment /

Shifting the burden

Lecture I
Pål I Davidsen

 

16:00 – 16:30

Coffe break

 

16:30 – 18:30

Modelling Short and Long-term policies of capacity adjustment /

Shifting the burden

Lecture II Pål I Davidsen
18:30 – 19:30

 

Sharpening system thinking by playing together

Team playing Rocco Scolozzi
Tuesday 12
09:00 – 10:30 Modelling Recruitment and Staffing policies Workshop I Pål I. Davidsen

 

10:30 – 11:00

Coffe break

11:00 – 13:00

 

Modelling Supply Chain instabilities

 

Workshop II

 

Pål I Davidsen

 

13:00 – 14:30

Lunch

14:30 – 16:00

 

Workshop III:  Modelling Market Growth

Workshop III Pål I. Davidsen

 

16:00 – 16:30

Coffe break

16:30 – 17:30

 

Workshop III:  Modelling Market Growth

Workshop IV
Pål I. Davidsen
17:30 – 18:30

 

Sharpening system thinking by playing together

Team playing Rocco Scolozzi
Wednesday 13
09:00 – 10:30 “Hybrid modelling: combined use of System Dynamics and individual-based modelling in ecology” – Working group setup Lecture III Francesco Giannino

 

10:30 – 11:00

Coffee break

11:00 – 13:00

 

Modelling Social Services & Policies

Lecture IV Douglas Mc Kelvie

 

13:00 – 14:30

Lunch

14:30 – 16:00

 

Modeling and analysis

 

Facilitated Work-shops in groups

Stefano Armenia/ Francesco Giannino/ Douglas Mc Kelvie / Edoardo Mollona/ Rocco Scolozzi/ Nuno Videria

 

16:00 – 16:30

Coffee break

16:30 – 18:30

 

Participatory Modelling of Sustainability Challenges: from Problem Scoping to Policy Analysis

Lecture V Nuno Videria
18:30 – 19:30

 

Sharpening system thinking by playing together

Team playing Rocco Scolozzi
Thursday 14
09:00 – 10:30 Modeling and analysis Facilitated Work-shops in groups Stefano Armenia/ Douglas Mc Kelvie / Edoardo Mollona/ Rocco Scolozzi/ Nuno Videria

 

10:30 – 11:00

Coffee break

 

11:00 – 13:00

 

Modeling and analysis

 

Facilitated Work-shops in groups

Stefano Armenia/ Douglas Mc Kelvie / Edoardo Mollona/ Rocco Scolozzi/ Nuno Videria

 

13:00 – 14:30

Lunch

14:30 – 16:00

 

Computer simulation as a reserarch strategy in social sciences

 

Lecture VI

Edoardo Mollona

 

16:00 – 16:30

Coffee break

 

16:30 – 18:30

 

Modeling and analysis

 

Lecture VII

 

David Wheat

18:30 – 19:30

 

Sharpening system thinking by playing together

Team playing Rocco Scolozzi
Friday 15
09:00 – 10:30 Modeling and analysis Lecture VIII David Wheat

 

10:30 – 11:00

Coffee break

 

11:00 – 13:00

 

Modeling and analysis

 

Facilitated Work-shops in groups

David Wheat / Stefano Armenia/ Edoardo Mollona / Rocco Scolozzi / Nuno Videria

 

13:00 – 14:30

Lunch

14:30 – 15:30

 

Embedding System Dynamics & Computer Simulation into successfull EU research project grants

 

Lecture IX

Stefano Armenia

 

15:30 – 16:00

Coffee break

 

16:00 – 17:30

 

Presentation preparations

 

Facilitated Work-shops in groups

 

David Wheat / Stefano Armenia/ Edoardo Mollona

17:30 – 19:00  Presentation Partecipants

Speakers

Stefano Armenia

Università La Sapienza - Roma, Italy

Stefano Armenia (Rome, Italy – 1971) is a Research Fellow in the Analysis of Dynamical Systems at DIAG Sapienza, the Department of Computer, Control and Business Engineering “Antonio Ruberti”, “Sapienza” University of Rome. He has a degree in Computer Engineering, Industrial Automation & Control Systems, a Ph.D. in Business Engineering and a Master in Management and Business Administration. He is member of the System Dynamics International Society (SDS) since 2002, President of SYDIC (the Italian Network of the SDS) since 2011 and member of the SDS Policy Council since 2014. His research interests deal with the analysis of complex systems dynamics in many fields: logistics and transportation, finance, technological innovation, policy modeling and assessment of impacts of innovation and new technologies on organizational processes.

Pål Davidsen

System Dynamics at the University of Bergen, Norway

Adjunct Professor of Economics, Virginia Western Community College, U.S.A. Professor, Monetary Policy, ISM University of Management & Economics, Lithuania Professor, Economic Dynamics, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Ukraine.

His current projects include collaboration with Ukrainian economists to build system dynamics modeling capacity at the National University of Kiev-Mohyla Academy, plus development of a money supply model with economists at Ukraine’s central bank. In collaboration with one of his students and an economist at Lithuania’s central bank, he is working on a multi-industry system dynamics model of price dynamics in Europe. His latest economics journal article is “Teaching Endogenous Money with Systems Thinking and Simulation Tools.” He also seeks to improve the practical value of system dynamics models by adding implementation insights gleaned from the public policy literature. Two recent book chapters on that topic are “Model-based Policy Design that Takes Implementation Seriously” and “Disappointing Outcomes: Can Implementation Modeling Help?”. Wheat is past-president of the economics chapter of the International System Dynamics Society. He served as Associate Editor of the System Dynamics Review and on the Advisory Board of the International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education. He has conducted guest lectures in Africa, Europe, and North and South.

David Wheat

Professor of System Dynamics, University of Bergen, Norway

Professor in System Dynamics at the University of Bergen, Norway. He holds Mag. Art. degree in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen. He has served twice as a Visiting Scholar at MIT, Mass, USA, as Associate Chair of the Pre-College Education Project with Professor Jay W. Forrester and as Adjunct Professor at Chalmers, the University of Karlstad, Sweden, and the Naval Academy in Bergen. He is the founder of the System Dynamics Group and of the Educational Information Science and technology Programme at the University of Bergen and is co-founder of the European Masters Programme in System Dynamics. He has served as President of the System Dynamics Society and as member of the editorial board of the System Dynamics Review and is currently Vice president of Publications in the System Dynamics Society from which he has received the Outstanding Service Award.

Francesco Giannino

Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Italy

Dr. Francesco Giannino is researcher in mathematics in the Department of Agriculture Sciences at the University of Naples Federico II. Dr. Giannino’s research interest is mainly devoted to the design, development and analysis of mathematical models in biology. Methodological and computational aspects have been considered for several different applications.

In particular:

Model design, implementation and analysis in complex biological systems. Different mathematical modelling approaches can be used to simulate biological and ecological process. Dr. Giannino uses system dynamics and individual-based approaches to describe vegetation dynamics, plant-soil processes, and movement of predators.

Integration of mathematical tool at different scale (theoretical and practical aspects). The effective study of complex biological systems needs the integration of modeling approaches based on different mathematical operators (ODE, PDE, logic functions), possibly using different languages and tools (Matlab, C + +, GIS, System Dynamic tools, …).

Douglas McKELVIE

U.K.

 

Douglas McKelvie is the Edinburgh-based Partner of The Symmetric Partnership, a UK consultancy that uses simulation to support strategic planning in health and social services. During more than 20 years in social work, regulation of social work qualifications at UK level, and workforce development, Douglas developed an interest in the use of modelling and simulation, initially to support workforce planning. For the past 15 years, he has built simulations for a wide range of organisations across the UK, including government departments, NHS bodies, and local authorities. He mostly uses System Dynamics, in a group model building context, an approach that takes a ‘whole system’ view of complex problems, such as are found in health and social care integration, where services span agency and functional boundaries. Models include delayed discharges, winter pressures planning, commissioning and capacity planning, workforce planning, economic impact analysis, public health / population level issues, mental health, and specific conditions, such as dementia. Douglas currently serves on the UK Policy Council of the System Dynamics Society and is the author of a number of papers on the use of simulation in health, social care, and related human services.

 

Edoardo Mollona

Università di Bologna, Italy

 

Edoardo Mollona graduated cum laude in Strategic Management at Bocconi University in Milan (Italy) and received a PhD degree in Strategic Management/Decision Sciences at the London Business School. He is currently full professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering (DISI) at the University of Bologna where he teaches Corporate Strategy and Strategic Modelling. Edoardo was formerly President of SYDIC (the Italian Network of the SDS). His research interests focus on the application of modeling and simulation techniques to strategic management, stakeholder theory and organizational theory. In particular, Edoardo Mollona conducts research on the evolution and strategic change in large organizations, and on the interplay between corporate strategy and socio-political processes at work in society. 

Rocco Scolozzi

Università di Trento, Italy

 

PhD in Environmental Engineering, expert at spatial decision support system, future studies, and system dynamics; specialized in ecosystem services assessment and participatory methods for natural resource management. Currently, working in partnership with EURAC (Bolzano, Italy), and as research fellow with Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering and Department of Sociology and Social Research (University of Trento, Italy). With prof. R. Poli (UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Systems) founder of -skopia Anticipation Services (r) an innovative start up company of Trento University (www.skopia.it).

Nuno Videira

PhD in Environmental Engineering from Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Spain

Nuno Videira holds a PhD in Environmental Engineering from Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, a MPhil in System Dynamics from the University of Bergen, and a BSc (5 years) in Environmental Engineering from the Faculty of Sciences and Technology (FCT) of NOVA. He is Assistant Professor at FCT NOVA, teaching on environmental management, ecological economics, participatory methods, and integrative modelling for MSc and PhD level programmes, including the European Master in System Dynamics Programme. He develops research at CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research of FCT NOVA. His research interests include participatory system dynamics modelling approaches for stakeholder engagement in environmental and sustainability decisions, supporting problem scoping and policy analysis processes, dealing with various issues, such as, ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation, water management, and sustainable consumption. He has developed extensive experience in the implementation of collaborative processes for the co-creation of models with broad stakeholder groups, having published widely on the topic. Currently, he is member of the Policy Council of the International System Dynamics Society and the Board of the European Society for Ecological Economics.

Venue - Villa del Grumello

Venue - Villa del Grumello

Fondazione Alessandro Volta

Via per Cernobbio 11, 22100 Como, ITALY